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Value Bet
-Introduction: What is ‘Value Betting’ all about?
-When is an odd regarded as a value bet?
-How is the value of each odd calculated?
-Value Betting and the Kelly Criterion
-Advices

Introduction For a number of people (including myself) one of the most important things that somebody has to consider when it comes to betting, is the value betting. A value odd is an odd which can be regarded as in favour of the player relative to the chances that any result has to come up.

Any odd can be taken to be a value odd whether we are talking about a 1.20 odd or an 18.00 odd. When do we know that an odd is of such a value? When do we know that a 1.80 odd is a value odd in one situation but not in another? In the next few lines we will aim to shed some light on these questions.
When is an odd regarded as a value bet? Every odd indicates a possibility, always a chance is hidden behind it. If we do the following simple mathematical equation 100/odd (e.g. 100/1.80), the result will indicate the probabilities that any given result/bet has to materialise.

More simply put, let’s assume that we have Team A with an odd of 1.80 and Team B with an odd of 1.20; it follows that, relative to the odds, Team A has more chances to win that Team B because Team A:100/1.80=55.55% and Team B: 100/1.20=83.33%.

It is to the best interest of any betting player to go in favour of odds which, relative to his personal opinion, are higher than the chances that the result tied to any particular odd has in materialising (value betting).
How is the value of each odd calculated? Since we have found how an odd is a value bet odd, we now need to see how much value is hidden within each odd; we need to do the following

Value= O.R X P.O/100
όπου
O.R. = the Odd for any Result.
P.O. = Personal Opinion, that is how many chances do we personally give for any given result.
Value betting με το Kelly Criterion When we come up with a value bet, the next question that needs to be answered is: ‘how much money should we bet’? J.L. Kelly has come up with an equation (which was initially used in horse betting and stock exchange markets), which is as follows:

Α= W.C (odds+1)-1/odds
where
A = this is the amount of money that we intend to use for a particular bet; it comes as a percentage of the total amount of money that we have for betting in general.
W. C. = the Winning Chances that we personally give for any bet.

Let’s give a simple example to make the Kelly Criterion even more understandable. Let’s suppose that we bet on the outcome of ‘heads’ or ‘letters’ when a coin is thrown; for the ‘heads’ we will be paid 3.00 whereas for the ‘letters’ we will be paid just 1.50. It should be more than obvious that betting in favour of the ‘heads’ outcome is a value bet because the ‘heads’ chances are 50% (exactly like the ‘letters’ chances) and relative to this logic, the odd should be 2.00.

How much money do we have to bet every time, in order to make sure that we won’t risk losing all of our money in a single bet? Relative to the A. and W.C. abbreviations and Kelly’s equation we have the following:

Α= 50% (3,00+1) -1 /3,00= 1/3
where
A = the percentage (from the total amount of money we have available for all of our bets) amount of money available for a particular bet.
50% = the odd for either ‘heads’ or ‘letters’ every time we toss a coin.
3.00 = the odd that the bookmaker gives for ‘heads’.

* Following Kelly’s equation, it follows that we should never use all our available money for betting on a single bet and that the percentage amount of money for a single bet is increased when the difference between our P.O. (personal opinion about any forthcoming result) and the bookmaker’s odd is greater and greater. In other words, the most ‘value’ any given bet has, the more money we should be betting on it.
AdvicesThe number one result in value betting is as follows: we should never forget that whether a bet can be regarded as a value bet or not, is strictly based on our personal opinion. This means that it may not be the bookmaker’s mistake but ours with unwanted consequences for our pocket.

In the long run, if we are capable of careful and correct appreciations of any given odds and the vartiables surrounding each game that will lead us in as many value bets as possible, then we are likely to be on the plus side. Something which ofcourse needs good information and many hours of study alongside personal experience and correct anticipation and appreciation of any given situation and game.

For any questions or notes do not hesitate to contact us at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
 
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SuperLeague 2007/2008
  Home  FullAway
   MP
1  Olympiakos Olympiakos1541
2  Panathinaikos Panathinaikos1539
3  AEK AEK1535
4  Larisa Larisa1533
5  Aris Aris1529
6  PAOK PAOK1529
7  Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis1527
8  Panionios Panionios1527
9  Levadiakos Levadiakos1526
10  Skoda Xanthi Skoda Xanthi1525
11  OFI OFI1522
12  Ergotelis Ergotelis1521
13  Iraklis Iraklis1520
14  Veria Veria1520
15  Atromitos Atromitos1517
16  Ap. Kalamarias Ap. Kalamarias1517
   MP
1  Olympiakos Olympiakos3070
2  AEK AEK3068
3  Panathinaikos Panathinaikos3066
4  Aris Aris3050
5  Larisa Larisa3045
6  Panionios Panionios3045
7  Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis3044
8  Skoda Xanthi Skoda Xanthi3036
9  PAOK PAOK3035
10  Iraklis Iraklis3035
11  Levadiakos Levadiakos3033
12  OFI OFI3032
13  Ergotelis Ergotelis3030
14  Atromitos Atromitos3029
15  Veria Veria3023
16  Ap. Kalamarias Ap. Kalamarias3023
   MP
1  AEK AEK1533
2  Olympiakos Olympiakos1529
3  Panathinaikos Panathinaikos1527
4  Aris Aris1521
5  Panionios Panionios1518
6  Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis1517
7  Iraklis Iraklis1515
8  Larisa Larisa1512
9  Atromitos Atromitos1512
10  Skoda Xanthi Skoda Xanthi1511
11  OFI OFI1510
12  Ergotelis Ergotelis159
13  Levadiakos Levadiakos157
14  PAOK PAOK156
15  Ap. Kalamarias Ap. Kalamarias156
16  Veria Veria153

Latest Results

SuperLeague 2007/2008
29.
Matchday		 30.
Matchday
OFI - PAN 1:2
VER - ATR 1:1
PAO - ARI 1:0
AST - LEV 1:2
IRA - KAL 5:2
PAK - AEK 0:4
XAN - OLY 1:4
LAR - ERG 3:2
PAN - ATR 2:1
ARI - OFI 2:0
LEV - VER 5:2
KAL - PAO 1:3
AEK - AST 2:0
OLY - IRA 3:1
LAR - PAK 4:3
ERG - XAN 2:0